Oats

A cold climate feed and food grain, small market, famous for violent price moves.

Overview

Output runs around 25 million tonnes, Russia and Canada leading, with the US importing from Canada. Demand splits feed for horses and cattle, food through oatmeal, granola, and the oat milk boom, and hulls for fiber. Chicago oats trade 5,000 bushels in a thin pool, and thin means moves: the 2021 Canadian drought took oats to record highs above 7 dollars a bushel before new supply calmed them. Relative to corn, oats price as a feed substitute holding a ratio band, breaking it only on crop failure or food demand surges, the classic small contract where a modest fundamental shift doubles price.