Lithium

The battery metal at the heart of electrification, priced in carbonate and hydroxide with boom bust intensity.

Overview

Supply comes from hard rock spodumene, Australia the leader, and continental brines in Chile and Argentina, with China refining most of both into battery chemicals. No deep terminal futures market exists, so contracts index off price assessments, though new exchange contracts in London and China are building hedging depth. Demand exploded with EV batteries, lifting prices nearly tenfold into late 2022, before the collapse of more than 80 percent by 2024 as African spodumene and Chinese refining capacity outran offtakes. Batteries now take the overwhelming majority of demand, and the iron phosphate share keeps growing. Boom bust cycles and long project lead times keep strategists arguing about the next shortage.