Lean Hogs

The pork carcass contract, driven by a consolidated US industry and Chinese demand swings.

Overview

Futures settle against the national lean carcass value in 40,000 pound contracts. US pork production consolidated into vertically coordinated systems, with one major packer under Chinese ownership. The seasonal pattern peaks with summer grilling demand, and China is the swing buyer: African swine fever wiped out roughly half the Chinese herd in 2018 19, pulling US product at record prices, then rebuilding crushed exports. The quarterly hogs and pigs report moves markets, sow productivity keeps rising, and disease such as PRRS tightens supply episodically. The carcass cutout, the sum of primal cuts, drives packer margins and the cash trade.