Commodity Supercycles

Supercycles are decade long waves where real commodity prices rise together, then mean revert. The pattern needs a demand shock bigger than supply can answer quickly, urbanizing a continent, rebuilding after war, electrifying transport.

Because mines and wells take years to build, prices overshoot, then the capacity rush gluts the market for years after. The 2000s China cycle lifted everything from iron ore to potash before peaking in 2011.

The electrification thesis argues copper, lithium, and grid metals power the next one, against Chinese property drag. Nobody rings the bell at either end, but the phase you are in, shortage rents or supply flood, should frame every resource allocation..